Probability that a team will advance as calculated by the various models.

Florida Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 97.1875 68.8177 47.3993 29.3555 17.6619 08.9200
Sagarin 95.4690 64.5672 42.5271 25.6098 15.1365 08.0013
Vegas 97.1875 66.6727 27.0290 08.5179 02.0976 00.5132


Arizona Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 96.5482 68.8763 55.8596 40.2103 24.6892 16.4979
Sagarin 95.9027 64.2909 48.6799 33.4024 20.4990 13.1649
Vegas 96.1739 60.7351 28.9248 07.8864 03.0612 00.9342


Wichita St. Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 94.9118 52.6140 18.1818 08.7525 03.5468 01.5470
Sagarin 89.8347 49.7711 20.5848 10.2094 04.5350 02.0882
Vegas 93.6041 76.9404 43.0314 27.0984 12.4533 05.6355


Virginia Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 97.4682 74.2420 43.5721 25.0946 13.3223 06.0069
Sagarin 96.6020 69.2370 40.3724 22.9926 12.3083 05.9818
Vegas 97.3964 50.1733 11.8609 04.5789 01.5685 00.4241


Villanova Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 93.3193 65.9473 42.6305 23.7922 12.7454 05.8067
Sagarin 93.0135 62.7161 38.9595 21.8025 11.7534 05.7559
Vegas 91.8417 76.6987 49.6498 21.3793 11.1821 05.0394


Michigan Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 91.3659 64.0758 34.2983 14.3486 06.5184 03.1778
Sagarin 93.9248 62.1611 33.7519 15.7296 07.6117 03.8145
Vegas 90.6695 47.2006 17.5009 05.5354 01.4702 00.3817


Wisconsin Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 89.0140 58.9568 33.4533 14.6850 06.4232 03.1410
Sagarin 85.4162 54.4648 30.9187 14.5788 06.9309 03.4815
Vegas 89.0140 13.8397 02.1859 00.6266 00.1303 00.0201


Kansas Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 89.8443 65.7747 42.1767 23.4756 13.3453 06.2978
Sagarin 91.8003 63.2364 39.1239 21.8051 12.3235 06.1941
Vegas 87.3106 75.2013 64.3644 48.9627 27.4852 15.6917


Syracuse Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 88.1361 43.8583 18.9287 07.6309 03.1511 01.0243
Sagarin 82.5915 40.9844 18.5253 08.0657 03.5665 01.3649
Vegas 87.4732 53.8873 14.3503 06.0559 01.4187 00.3295


Creighton Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 89.8443 62.0536 35.7667 15.9139 07.0574 03.4960
Sagarin 86.1031 56.4893 32.4257 15.4457 07.4184 03.7634
Vegas 86.9986 80.9678 54.3472 42.4504 29.7855 18.1289


Duke Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 88.1361 58.4891 35.4981 15.9806 07.7839 04.0597
Sagarin 83.3435 53.0504 31.2630 15.3697 07.8392 04.1376
Vegas 86.3623 46.2333 30.6554 14.0368 05.5627 02.1659


Iowa St. Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 76.6470 49.7781 25.1038 12.3995 05.8423 02.2987
Sagarin 79.5481 49.7260 25.5611 13.0166 06.3558 02.7950
Vegas 74.7878 46.3052 23.3462 08.4420 03.7988 01.4272


Michigan St. Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 90.6279 62.2026 34.4780 19.3923 10.0291 04.3882
Sagarin 86.5044 56.4634 31.4441 17.5743 09.2188 04.3823
Vegas 87.8686 85.3879 71.6339 53.2713 36.6287 23.0150


Louisville Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 93.3193 82.3751 61.8149 44.1055 28.1532 19.0036
Sagarin 88.4307 73.0624 51.7799 35.1684 22.1003 14.3114
Vegas 91.6548 79.3341 46.8582 30.3248 14.4753 06.8082


San Diego St. Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 72.2709 43.8154 12.7605 05.6571 01.9186 00.7377
Sagarin 72.2987 41.6649 14.2093 06.6444 02.6205 01.0973
Vegas 71.7193 16.2855 05.5547 00.7405 00.1540 00.0238


UC Los Angeles Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 78.0158 50.1755 21.6629 10.6726 05.0480 01.9192
Sagarin 76.1219 46.7165 21.4228 10.7597 05.2748 02.2623
Vegas 75.9117 54.8599 40.5431 19.7512 08.2091 03.4515


VCU Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 72.2709 36.3903 13.3726 05.7015 02.3172 00.7396
Sagarin 74.6248 38.0834 15.4786 06.9510 03.0368 01.1469
Vegas 71.0666 27.8645 16.1536 05.4081 01.4320 00.3779


Oklahoma Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 60.7469 33.4005 09.0361 03.7845 01.2006 00.4331
Sagarin 67.3489 36.5203 11.7974 05.2829 01.9843 00.7922
Vegas 59.6126 49.8844 33.2163 12.4568 06.2881 02.5859


Saint Louis Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 60.7469 10.9263 03.8752 01.2379 00.3185 00.0888
Sagarin 62.2769 15.7873 06.2023 02.2516 00.7143 00.2353
Vegas 60.3190 11.8698 02.8667 00.7779 00.1236 00.0191


Cincinnati Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 60.7469 23.3677 09.2976 03.7473 01.3448 00.3898
Sagarin 55.8971 23.8463 10.2834 04.4373 01.7630 00.6209
Vegas 60.7253 03.7370 00.7665 00.1056 00.0129 00.0010


North Carolina Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 64.1935 30.3631 11.9241 04.5503 01.6361 00.4753
Sagarin 58.2082 27.4744 11.6534 04.8802 01.9418 00.6849
Vegas 63.0998 31.0570 13.5746 04.1074 01.5806 00.4916


Massachusetts Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 32.4718 09.1796 03.0273 00.6318 00.1462 00.0367
Sagarin 35.7399 12.1253 04.4073 01.2417 00.3643 00.1110
Vegas 34.1396 14.1760 07.4433 02.4282 00.6667 00.1790


Baylor Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 62.4827 25.1935 10.9166 03.4279 01.0633 00.3754
Sagarin 61.3109 26.9698 12.4098 04.5541 01.6827 00.6610
Vegas 62.0120 07.7282 01.5630 00.4480 00.0932 00.0144


Ohio St. Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 70.7280 44.1452 22.6419 10.9886 05.4553 02.1944
Sagarin 72.2489 44.7696 23.1692 11.6150 05.9094 02.6411
Vegas 69.9591 34.3663 07.7499 02.8505 00.5549 00.1062


New Mexico Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 60.7469 20.1821 08.2844 02.7240 00.9181 00.2369
Sagarin 51.0749 18.2396 07.9263 02.9610 01.1239 00.3639
Vegas 60.1143 12.6845 06.8048 02.7654 00.6155 00.1355


Oregon Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 67.5282 28.0761 12.2311 03.8830 01.2181 00.4347
Sagarin 57.4745 25.8145 11.9383 04.4171 01.6456 00.6517
Vegas 65.4603 58.3296 29.1727 20.8640 13.0576 06.9140


Texas Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 57.2137 19.7329 06.5190 01.5488 00.4072 00.1159
Sagarin 48.5212 17.6508 06.6445 02.0564 00.6628 00.2218
Vegas 56.6528 30.9207 11.7035 03.7846 01.0294 00.2737


Connecticut Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 69.1463 26.1057 12.7948 05.1005 01.9197 00.5867
Sagarin 64.4987 26.2409 13.0101 05.6303 02.3186 00.8486
Vegas 68.4904 16.4343 05.3738 00.9588 00.2288 00.0401


Memphis Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 60.7469 16.2693 05.4367 01.7533 00.4939 00.1096
Sagarin 53.2840 16.8833 06.3927 02.3277 00.7715 00.2239
Vegas 59.9214 32.1560 08.1358 03.3282 01.2098 00.3514


Kentucky Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 70.7280 36.3410 12.2973 05.8150 02.3096 00.9878
Sagarin 62.6486 33.4517 13.6304 06.6678 02.9178 01.3238
Vegas 69.8903 17.4286 04.9906 01.6429 00.3289 00.0642


Gonzaga Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 41.0106 10.7745 06.2143 02.8329 00.9929 00.3939
Sagarin 42.4716 13.3666 07.5153 03.5898 01.4502 00.6217
Vegas 41.6035 14.3330 04.4589 00.6732 00.1565 00.0272


Colorado Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 27.7291 05.1078 01.6789 00.4381 00.1065 00.0191
Sagarin 32.4445 07.9844 02.9173 00.9013 00.2681 00.0666
Vegas 28.2426 05.6068 00.7539 00.0764 00.0049 00.0003


Pittsburgh Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 72.2709 25.8639 13.9299 06.4423 02.8515 01.0039
Sagarin 67.5555 26.9252 14.5003 06.9336 03.2314 01.3105
Vegas 71.7574 27.4772 07.8862 01.7248 00.2744 00.0425


Oklahoma St. Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 58.9894 20.1449 13.3992 07.3605 03.2247 01.5793
Sagarin 57.5284 21.9410 13.9103 07.6738 03.6526 01.8369
Vegas 58.3965 24.6387 09.4674 01.9062 00.5709 00.1308


Kansas St. Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 29.2720 10.6117 02.3376 00.7545 00.1963 00.0553
Sagarin 37.3514 15.4443 04.6292 01.6937 00.5418 00.1800
Vegas 30.1097 03.7915 00.5853 00.1003 00.0093 00.0008


George Wash. Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 39.2531 09.3106 02.7896 00.8041 00.2006 00.0390
Sagarin 46.7160 13.5230 04.7158 01.5770 00.4774 00.1258
Vegas 40.0786 17.5942 03.3519 01.0695 00.3018 00.0647


St. Josephs Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 30.8537 07.1910 02.3057 00.5572 00.1243 00.0214
Sagarin 35.5013 09.9397 03.5267 01.0497 00.2925 00.0706
Vegas 31.5096 04.0213 00.7234 00.0655 00.0083 00.0007


Arizona St. Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 42.7863 15.4070 05.3376 01.3390 00.3712 00.1114
Sagarin 51.4788 19.4061 07.5707 02.4370 00.8169 00.2843
Vegas 43.3472 20.9178 06.6521 01.7862 00.3982 00.0866


Brigham Young Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 32.4718 10.8464 03.7942 00.9282 00.2226 00.0613
Sagarin 42.5255 16.1842 06.3312 01.9290 00.5908 00.1930
Vegas 34.5397 27.6818 10.0444 05.7510 02.7234 01.0407


Stanford Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 39.2531 12.6243 05.0241 01.5939 00.5183 00.1285
Sagarin 48.9251 17.0158 07.2196 02.6257 00.9704 00.3051
Vegas 39.8857 06.0042 02.6262 00.8286 00.1318 00.0204


Dayton Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 29.2720 10.3275 02.6219 00.5977 00.1396 00.0239
Sagarin 27.7511 11.1036 03.3306 00.9465 00.2733 00.0658
Vegas 30.0409 09.1692 01.0429 00.2108 00.0191 00.0016


Nebraska Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 37.5173 10.6400 03.2426 00.6745 00.1368 00.0320
Sagarin 38.6891 13.0611 04.6016 01.2422 00.3367 00.0975
Vegas 37.9880 02.9384 00.3933 00.0769 00.0103 00.0010


Tennessee Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 67.5282 29.6340 14.7712 05.1407 01.9579 00.8037
Sagarin 64.2601 30.2797 15.2216 06.2075 02.6328 01.1580
Vegas 65.8604 37.3847 25.4370 12.1171 05.0143 02.0400


Providence Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 35.8065 13.6550 04.1284 01.2024 00.3260 00.0694
Sagarin 41.7918 16.5084 05.7414 01.9641 00.6327 00.1781
Vegas 36.9002 13.5390 04.3604 00.9111 00.2512 00.0524


Harvard Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 39.2531 12.6146 04.1920 01.4079 00.4144 00.0965
Sagarin 44.1029 16.4597 06.1897 02.3243 00.7961 00.2393
Vegas 39.2747 01.4829 00.2033 00.0181 00.0014 00.0001


No. Carolina St. Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 39.2531 04.1198 00.9357 00.1879 00.0292 00.0049
Sagarin 37.7231 06.4839 01.8236 00.4667 00.1021 00.0232
Vegas 39.6810 05.5005 00.9602 00.1863 00.0200 00.0021


N Dakota St Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 39.2531 13.5417 01.7211 00.3938 00.0626 00.0116
Sagarin 32.6511 12.1297 02.2484 00.6390 00.1450 00.0352
Vegas 40.3874 31.1756 17.9255 05.2363 02.1533 00.7011


S F Austin Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 27.7291 06.3044 00.8338 00.1387 00.0211 00.0023
Sagarin 25.3752 06.9091 01.3163 00.2890 00.0605 00.0103
Vegas 28.9334 06.1136 02.2479 00.4089 00.0522 00.0064


Tulsa Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 21.9842 07.1298 01.1074 00.2140 00.0380 00.0048
Sagarin 23.8781 08.2910 01.7801 00.4380 00.1032 00.0199
Vegas 24.0883 11.1620 05.3813 01.3936 00.2713 00.0519


New Mexico St. Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 27.7291 09.2424 00.9851 00.1949 00.0263 00.0041
Sagarin 27.7013 09.6851 01.5761 00.4016 00.0809 00.0174
Vegas 28.2807 02.6545 00.4394 00.0227 00.0020 00.0001


Manhattan Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 06.6807 02.5788 00.5386 00.0992 00.0141 00.0022
Sagarin 11.5693 04.6664 01.2326 00.2955 00.0603 00.0128
Vegas 08.3452 03.2956 00.4954 00.0822 00.0074 00.0006


Delaware Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 09.3721 01.8152 00.2285 00.0284 00.0029 00.0002
Sagarin 13.4956 03.2307 00.5803 00.1026 00.0158 00.0020
Vegas 12.1314 09.3922 04.0466 01.2911 00.3643 00.0781


NC Central Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 23.3530 06.2038 01.0451 00.1661 00.0239 00.0026
Sagarin 20.4519 06.2911 01.4047 00.3056 00.0614 00.0105
Vegas 25.2122 09.0989 02.5071 00.4352 00.1013 00.0172


Mercer Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 11.8639 02.6972 00.5127 00.0559 00.0068 00.0009
Sagarin 16.6565 04.5446 01.0759 00.1886 00.0343 00.0065
Vegas 13.6377 02.2060 00.5563 00.0703 00.0070 00.0007


UL-Lafayette Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 10.1557 02.1128 00.2912 00.0249 00.0020 00.0002
Sagarin 13.8969 03.4798 00.6723 00.0927 00.0127 00.0019
Vegas 13.0014 08.3656 02.2900 00.8607 00.2457 00.0534


W Michigan Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 11.8639 01.6690 00.1793 00.0162 00.0015 00.0001
Sagarin 17.4085 03.1424 00.4828 00.0685 00.0098 00.0011
Vegas 12.5268 02.5771 00.1361 00.0135 00.0005 00.0000


E Kentucky Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 10.1557 01.4189 00.1430 00.0097 00.0007 00.0000
Sagarin 08.1997 01.5083 00.2223 00.0253 00.0029 00.0003
Vegas 12.6894 06.1101 02.9254 01.0316 00.1899 00.0343


American U. Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 10.9860 02.1207 00.3043 00.0269 00.0022 00.0002
Sagarin 14.5838 03.5366 00.7025 00.0995 00.0140 00.0021
Vegas 10.9860 00.1489 00.0035 00.0001 00.0000 00.0000


Wofford Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 08.6341 00.7843 00.0357 00.0010 00.0000 00.0000
Sagarin 06.0752 00.7820 00.0649 00.0040 00.0003 00.0000
Vegas 09.3305 00.9609 00.0515 00.0023 00.0001 00.0000


Wisc-Milwaukee Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 06.6807 00.7560 00.0676 00.0038 00.0002 00.0000
Sagarin 06.9865 01.1033 00.1430 00.0142 00.0013 00.0001
Vegas 08.1583 02.8458 00.4647 00.0379 00.0043 00.0003


Coastal Carolina Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 02.5318 00.1781 00.0055 00.0002 00.0000 00.0000
Sagarin 03.3980 00.3567 00.0215 00.0012 00.0001 00.0000
Vegas 02.6036 00.0765 00.0010 00.0000 00.0000 00.0000


Cal Poly Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 05.0882 00.4332 00.0190 00.0012 00.0001 00.0000
Sagarin 10.1653 01.3329 00.1171 00.0123 00.0011 00.0001
Vegas 06.3959 01.8396 00.2122 00.0264 00.0017 00.0001


Weber St. Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 03.4518 00.2043 00.0242 00.0016 00.0001 00.0000
Sagarin 04.0973 00.4015 00.0633 00.0071 00.0006 00.0001
Vegas 03.8261 00.2932 00.0131 00.0002 00.0000 00.0000


Albany Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Region Round 5 Champ
Original 02.8125 00.2106 00.0151 00.0007 00.0000 00.0000
Sagarin 04.5310 00.5233 00.0575 00.0047 00.0004 00.0000
Vegas 02.8125 00.2433 00.0050 00.0001 00.0000 00.0000